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Breaking into the world’s most-visited art institution in the middle of the day, taking eight items of invaluable historical gems and disappearing into the city traffic on simple scooters may seem like the most audacious of crimes, carried out for global fame and ensuing movie adaptations.

Specialists who observe trends in international art crime, however, see the recent robbery at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the most recent in a string of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the monetary worth of precious stones or materials than the historical importance, perpetuating a trend that has emerged over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“You may ask why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are breaking into a world-famous museum rather than a Cartier store,” stated Christopher A Marinello. “The answer is simple: it’s because these days a high-end boutique is better protected.”

A series of aggressive retail store thefts indicate that many outlets have strengthened their security in the past few years, with armed guards on their premises and wares no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, meanwhile, look more exposed, in part because of the inherent reason of being public-facing institutions in older structures, and partly the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“Since Covid, governments across the globe have reduced spending on law enforcement and the arts funding,” noted Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how vulnerable our museums have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The robbery of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a hugely valuable diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the thieves dropped by the roadside on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the Mona Lisa from the same museum, carried out by the worker the thief.

More relevant points of reference may be the 2019 theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a £4.75m valuable object from Blenheim Palace the same year, the 2017 heist of a valuable item from Berlin’s Bode Museum or even a spate of thefts of collector items from US mining museums.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Break in, take items, and dismantle them as rapidly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, experts say, the thieves would struggle to find a buyer. “There’s no way to trade something as immediately identifiable as the museum's gems on the licit market”, commented an art crime researcher of the a relevant organization.

“They would be immediately recognised, especially given the Ministry of Culture has released images of the items. Even a private collector or an auction house would want to see documentation confirming legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, institutions were often hesitant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known works of art and would remain quiet out of shame. These days, as cultural robberies are more widely publicised, the keeping and sale of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“If you steal a famous painting, it has to stay complete or it becomes worthless, and you have to devise a plan to conceal it, perhaps by moving it among difficult criminal actors,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the risk of an accomplice telling the police to cash in a ransom.”

For comparable factors, an art detective said it was highly improbable that the theft had been ordered. “Stolen to order is something from Hollywood movies,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It’s all around the world and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you end up in prison. You can't display it to your acquaintances, you cannot bequeath it to your family.”

Altering taken items by melting down or re-cutting does reduce the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with considerable risk because modern cutting techniques give stones a bigger and lighter appearance, and antique-cut stones would either attract notice or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the crime. “I suspect that the Louvre thieves will try to bring the items to locations with diamond expertise like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and find someone to cut out the gems,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already raised questions about protective steps at the institution, with a leaked state auditor report expected to be published next month criticising “considerable” and “persistent” slow progress in modernizing equipment and observing that surveillance were missing in multiple areas. But specialists say showing valuable objects in older structures with a constant flow of guests comes with risks that are not possible to remove entirely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” explained an art crime professor. “They often have large accessible windows that allows for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you can’t fit them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for buildings should be conceptualised “like a fortress”, said a security advisor. “It should include multiple levels to repel intruders.”

Contemporary structures are fitted with advanced surveillance systems or in-built vibration sensors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but old museums may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Laser scanners can be hard to install to stuccoed ceilings. Motion and sound detectors may also have to be disabled during the daytime as crowds stomp through a museum.

The timing of the robbery, which occurred between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was common of recent thefts, Stürmann said. “There’s a good reason why thefts tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when guards change their shifts and prior to the museum is crowded who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have introduced new devices that can raise the alarm more quickly and efficiently, but it has also provided robbers new tools with which to circumvent security measures. In Paris, the thieves reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and cut through a window with a electric tool.

An author said the discussion in the country about the historic structure had mostly focused on visitor management in the past decade, and less on protection.

The museum has an on-site team of about 50 full-time firefighters, but their purpose is mainly to protect the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all depends on political will and funding, and at present the nation lacks sufficient money.”